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Water NeosTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.3%
avg ELO -12.6 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1073
· median 1073
· range 1073–1073
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1263
Q3 1442
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
